Les élections législatives prévues dimanche 10 mars doivent permettre à la Guinée-Bissau de tourner la page d’un passé agité. Ce scrutin, qui devrait être suivi d’une élection présidentielle et d’une normalisation des institutions, pourrait ouvrir la voie à une levée des sanctions internationales imposées au pays depuis le dernier coup d’Etat militaire, en 2012. Des législatives aussi pour sortir de la crise politico-militaire qui perdure depuis l’éviction du premier ministre Domingos Simoes Pereira par le président José Mario Vas en août 2015.

Situé entre le Sénégal et la Guinée, la Guinée-Bissau est une ancienne colonie portugaise qui a accédé à l’indépendance à la suite d’une longue guerre de libération. En 1956, Amilcar Cabral et Rafael Barbosa fondent clandestinement le Parti africain pour l’indépendance de la Guinée et du Cap-Vert (PAIGC). En 1961, ce mouvement engage une lutte armée contre les Portugais jusqu’à contrôler la majeure partie du pays en 1968. Amilcar Cabral, surnommé le « Che » africain (en référence au « Che Guevara » à Cuba) est assassiné à Conakry (Guinée) en 1973. La même année, le 24 septembre 1973, le PAIGC déclare l’indépendance de la Guinée-Bissau, qui est reconnue par les Nations unies. Le 10 septembre 1974, le Portugal, après la révolution des Œillets et la chute de la dictature de Marcelo Caetano, reconnaîtra officiellement l’indépendance de la Guinée-Bissau.

Coups d’Etat, assassinats et tentatives démocratiques

A la proclamation de l’indépendance, Luis Cabral, le demi-frère d’Amilcar Cabral, devient le premier président du jeune Etat. Mais en 1980, il est renversé par un coup d’Etat mené par le Premier ministre Joao Bernardo Vieira qui dirige un gouvernement provisoire de 1980 à 1984 à l’issue duquel il est reconduit par l’Assemblée nationale à parti unique. Il cumule ainsi les fonctions de chef de l’Etat, chef du gouvernement et commandant des forces armées. Après de multiples tentatives de coup d’Etat et l’exécution de son vice-président pour trahison, il se fait réélire à l’occasion des premières élections présidentielle et législatives multipartites organisées dans le pays en 1994. A l’issue de son mandat en 1998, il refuse d’organiser de nouvelles élections. Une junte militaire menée par le général Ansoumane s’oppose au président et engage le pays dans une guerre civile. Après ce rapport de force, la junte renverse le président en mai 1999 et l’oblige à s’exiler.

En février 2000, de nouvelles élections sont organisées et portent au pouvoir le candidat de l’opposition Kumba Lalà. Le pays, dévasté par la guerre, est sinistré économiquement et les institutions démocratiques peinent à fonctionner normalement face au poids de l’armée. Un nouveau coup d’Etat en septembre 2003, mené par le général Verissimo Seabra Correia, renverse Kumba Lalà. L’année suivante, le général est assassiné par des soldats mutins de retour du Liberia. L’ancien président Joao Bernardo Vieira rentre d’exil et se fait réélire le 24 juillet 2005. Quatre ans plus tard, il est assassiné à son tour par des militaires, en représailles à un attentat à la bombe qui avait tué le chef d’état-major des armées.

De nouvelles élections en juillet 2009 portent au pouvoir le candidat du PAIGC, Malam Bacai Sanha, mais celui-ci décède de maladie en janvier 2012. Des élections sur deux tours sont alors de nouveau organisées. A l’issue du premier tour le 11 mars 2012, le Premier ministre sortant Carlos Gomes est en tête face à l’ancien président Kumba Lalà. Mais avant que le second tour ne départage les deux candidats, dans la nuit du 12 avril le général Mamadu Ture Kuruma fait un coup d’Etat, prend le pouvoir et fait emprisonner Carlos Gomes et d’autres responsables politiques. La communauté internationale exige un retour à l’ordre constitutionnel. La junte militaire et les ex-opposants au régime du Premier ministre Carlos Gomes annoncent la dissolution des institutions et la création d’un « Conseil national de transition » avec un président intérimaire, Manuel Serifo Nhamadjo, pour une période de transition de deux ans à l’issue de laquelle seront organisées des élections. Des sanctions internationales sont imposées à la Guinée-Bissau et plus de 500 militaires de l’Ecomog, la force ouest-africaine, sont déployés sur le territoire pour sécuriser le processus de transition politique.

La crise politique de 2015

Effectivement, des élections sont organisées deux ans plus tard et marquent un retour à la légalité constitutionnelle malgré un climat de forte instabilité. José Mario Vaz (du PAIGC) devient le nouveau président de la Guinée-Bissau le 13 avril 2014 et choisit comme Premier ministre Domingo Simoes Pereira, le chef du parti du PAIGC conformément à la Constitution bissau-guinéenne, qui spécifie que le poste de Premier ministre revient au chef du parti vainqueur des législative (le PAIGC).

Pourtant en août 2015, le président limoge son Premier ministre et son gouvernement, dénonçant notamment dans un discours « un manque de transparence dans l’attribution des marchés publics, la corruption, le népotisme, des obstructions à la justice », en référence aux démêlés judiciaires de plusieurs ministres, dont celui des Affaires étrangères, soupçonné d’être impliqué dans une affaire de corruption. Pour d’autres observateurs du PAIGC, « la vraie raison est que le président voudrait piloter l’action gouvernementale mais la Constitution ne lui offre pas cette prérogative ». La Guinée-Bissau s’enfonce dans une grave crise politique.

Après une longue période de vacance gouvernementale, le président nomme en septembre 2015 Carlos Correa, un vétéran du PAIGC, avant de le congédier en mai, fustigeant l’absence de plan gouvernemental. En septembre 2016, la Cédéao et les Nations unies mettent en place les Accords de Conakry pour aider la Guinée-Bissao à sortir de la crise politique qui se pérennise. Plusieurs Premiers ministres se succéderont. Umaro Sissoco Embalo en novembre 2016, Artur Sylva en janvier 2018 et Aristide Gomes avril 2018. Le Conseil de sécurité de l’ONU, en août 2018, note des améliorations de la situation politique mais rappelle que conformément aux Accords de Conakry, des réformes constitutionnelles et électorales restent à réaliser.

Les élections législatives du dimanche 10 mars

Les élections législatives, initialement prévues en novembre 2018, doivent permettre de tourner la page de cette crise qui, depuis 2015, perturbe la vie politique du pays. Un des objectifs principaux : préparer la Guinée-Bissau à l’élection présidentielle qui doit suivre. Ce processus devrait ouvrir la voie à une levée des sanctions onusiennes entre fin 2019 et début 2020. D’ici là, l’ONU entend accompagner des réformes pour doter le pays « d’institutions impartiales, transparentes, responsables et compétentes dans les domaines de la sécurité et de l’Etat de droit ».

Le président José Mario Vaz, de son côté, a nommé un nouveau ministre de l’Intérieur, Edmundo Mendes, un ancien procureur et professeur de droit à l’Université Amilcar Cabral pour faciliter la campagne et le scrutin au lendemain de la répression d’une manifestation d’étudiants. Une nomination consensuelle, réclamée par les partis politiques et la société civile qui craignent des violences, tout comme la communauté internationale. Vingt des 21 partis en lice ont signé le 14 février un « pacte de stabilité » dans lequel ils se sont engagés à recourir aux voies légales en cas de contestation et à éviter les « attaques verbales ou l’utilisation de la force ».

Le scrutin à la proportionnelle à un seul tour doit permettre de renouveler les 102 sièges de l’Assemblée nationale dominée par l’opposition, comprenant principalement 15 députés pour le Mouvement pour l’alternance et la démocratie (Madem), 41 députés pour le Parti pour la rénovation sociale (PRS), 42 députés pour le Parti africain pour l’indépendance de la Guinée et du Cap-Vert (PAIGC) et d’autres petits partis pour le reste des sièges.

Le scrutin de dimanche s’annonce vital pour ramener le pays sur une trajectoire stabilisée au sein de la communauté internationale.

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